Robert Surgenor claims that the FBI Uniform Crime Reports demonstrate that we are now in an "epidemic" of juvenile crime.  On the previous page of this review, we examined the actual figures from the UCR and learned that they show the exact opposite of what Surgenor claims: a continuing decrease in overall juvenile violent crime arrests for most of the past decade.  Surgenor counters that UCR figures after 1992 are not accurate when they show decreases in juvenile arrest rates.   On this page, we shall examine Surgenor's basis for this claim, and  discover that it is based on demonstrably false assertions about the UCR's methodology in the post-1992 period.  We shall note that the other major source of USA crime statistics, the Bureau of Justice Statistics, which uses a completely different methodology, has also recorded a downward trend in reports of juvenile crime in recent years similar to the UCR's downward trend over the same period.

    To avoid charges of misrepresenting Surgenor's position, his argument against the accuracy of post-1992 UCR data is presented below in his own words.

  "In 1992, many of the law enforcement agencies in the United States switched to another form of entering crime statistics.  Prior to 1992, each department reviewed their crime incidents and entered that information on a form that was forwarded to the F.B.I.  In 1992, an alternative was offered to police departments.  It was called the National Incident Based Reporting System, or NIBRS, for short.  It incorporated the use of computer data entry screens and special formats, making it quickly retrieve crime statistics for their community.  Departments were advised by the promoters of this product that it was compatible with the computer format used by the F.B.I., so there would be no further need to compile figures by hand.  The department would be able to fire off the digital information from NIBRS directly to the F.B.I.  There was only one problem.  It wasn't compatible.

  "After an entire year of entering figures into the NIBRS program, many departments found that the information could not be sent to the F.B.I.  In that year, my department found it impossible to recompile all of the figures as they had in years past, so they did not send any statistics to the F.B.I. for that year.  In the years following 1992. we continued to use the NIBRS system because of its usefulness as a valuable database for local crime information, but we also paid an employee to record that information by hand to forward to the F.B.I. for the Uniform Crime Reports." (p. 42-43)

    "Tables 1 through 5 and 7 of this publication contain statistics for the entire United States.  Because not all law enforcement agencies provide data for complete reporting periods, estimated crime counts are included in these presentations.  Offense estimation occurs within each of three areas: Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA's), cities outside MSA's, and rural counties.  Using the known crime experiences of similar areas within a state, the estimates are computed by assigning the same proportional crime volumes to nonreporting agencies.  The size of agency; type of jurisdiction, e.g. police department versus sheriff's office; and geographical location are considered in the estimation process.
    "Because of efforts to convert to the NIBRS in recent years, it has become necessary to estimate totals for some states.  Also, the inability of some state UCR Programs to provide forcible rape figures in accordance with UCR guidelines and other problems at the state levels have required unique estimation procedures."  (Source: 1996 UCR, page 389)

"So there is one major factor to consider when looking at the F.B.I.'s Uniform Crime Reports.  In the years following 1992, there were many departments that began utilizing NIBRS to enter their crime statistics and simply quit sending the figures to the F.B.I.  This fact can easily be confirmed by comparing the UCR figures from 1991 to the present.  For example, in the 1991 UCR, one can see the list of cities that reported to the F.B.I. from the state of Illinois.  There are a total of 177 cities shown,  from Addison to Zion.  In fact, the list takes up four pages.
  "However, if one looks at the 1996 Uniform Crime Reports, the list of cities in the state of Illinois that are now reporting their statistics to the F.B.I. consists of six cities. As far as the F.B.I. is concerned, all of the crime that is occurring in Illinois is occurring in six cities.  It's no wonder that the politicians are boasting that the crime rate is dropping.  Little does the public know that the crime rate is exploding.  It just isn't being reported." (p. 43, emphasis added)

"Concerning Illinois, valid Crime Index counts were available for most of the largest cities.  For other agencies, the only available counts were generated without application of the UCR Hierarchy Rule.  (The Hierarchy Rule requires that only the most serious offense in a multiple-offense criminal incident is counted.)   To arrive at a state estimate comparable to the rest of the Nation, the total supplied by the Illinois State Program (which was inflated because of the nonapplication of the Hierarchy Rule) was reduced by the proportion of multiple offenses reported within single incidents in the available NIBRS data.  Valid totals for the large cities were excluded from the reduction process."  (Source: 1996 UCR, p. 390)

    If there actually were a problem in the UCR data collection process which created a spurious decrease in the juvenile crime arrest rates over time, we should expect the trends in arrest rates reported by the UCR to diverge from the trends in crime incidence reported by the other main source of US national crime data, the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics - National Crime Victimization Surveys (NCVS):

               "National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is the Nation's primary source of information on
               criminal victimization. Each year, data are obtained from a nationally representative sample of
               roughly 50,000 households comprising nearly 100,000 persons on the frequency, characteristics and
               consequences of criminal victimization in the United States. The survey enables BJS to estimate the
               likelihood of victimization by rape, sexual assault, robbery, assault, theft, household burglary, and
               motor vehicle theft for the population as a whole as well as for segments of the population such as
               women, the elderly, members of various racial groups, city dwellers, or other groups. The NCVS
               provides the largest national forum for victims to describe the impact of crime and characteristics of
              violent offenders."   (Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics)

                    "According to the victim's perception of the age of the offender, the number of serious violent offenses committed by persons ages 12 to 17 declined 44% from 1993 to 1998, while those
committed by persons older than 17 fell 34%."
               (Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics)

                    "The number of serious violent offenses committed by adults reached an all time low in 1997; the number committed by juveniles reached an all time low in 1998."
               (Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics)

    On Page Four of this review, we shall examine juvenile crime statistics from Surgenor's local area and discover that they, too, show the same downward trends as the national juvenile crime data.

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